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Thursday, February 02, 2006

The 'Earned' Boom

There's an article in this month's Wired about the 'new boom' in Silicon Valley. Following up on my posts about the latest buzzword 'Web 2.0' and how it relates to all of this, I thought this passage was particularly striking:
"Today, broadband is mainstream, online shopping is commonplace, everyone has a wireless device or two, and Apple's latest music player was - for the fifth season in a row - the must-have holiday gift. The Internet and digital media are clearly not fads. Over the past decade, we've started to live a life only imagined in mid-'90s business plans. As a result, some silly bubble-era ideas are starting to actually make sense - perhaps a lot of sense."
I hate to harp on it, but what we're seeing here is simply maturation of the technology and industry. The article refers to technological adoption and growth even after the bust. That's not surprising at all really. The ideas were (mostly) sound, and they had value, they were simply overvalued at the time. Web services in 1997 were hardly worth the same as their counterparts today - they simply didn't deliver. However, the core of the idea was good, it was just going to take time for it to come to fruition.

In many ways, there haven't been a lot of lessons learned from the bust or any brave new ideas pioneered. There's been a lot of experience gained though, and a lot more understanding by the wider public of just what these technologies can offer. Essentially, the first Internet boom was unwarranted, unearned. It was wild speculation and excitement over what could be without any thought paid to what actually was.

I think Wired is right in suggesting that this 'new boom' may be sustainable since this time it's actually earned. They point to iPods and online music, Skype and VOIP, and open source software. I'd also point to development tools like Flash and Javascript being fully fleshed-out technologies. Or Firefox and Internet Explorer being stable browsers. Or Google providing fast, efficient searching. Or simply the vast array of quality content being produced by a culture thoroughly engaged with the technology.

The groundwork has been laid, the dues paid, and quite simply: it all works rather well. So is it really such a surprise that eventually it might start reaping the rewards?

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